MACROMODELING OF LOCAL POWER SUPPLY SYSTEM BALANCE FORECASTING USING FRACTAL PROPERTIES OF LOAD AND GENERATION SCHEDULES
Daniyar Jarykbassov
daniyarjarykbassov@yandex.kzAcademy of Logistics and Transport (Kazakhstan)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0717-7082
Petr Lezhniuk
Institute of Renewable Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9366-3553
Iryna Hunko
Vinnytsia National Technical University (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2868-4056
Vladyslav Lysyi
Institute of Renewable Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0009-0007-0211-9100
Lyubov Dobrovolska
Lutsk National Technical University (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8175-7635
Abstract
A method of forecasting the balance of electricity consumption of urban development objects, civil purposes using discrete macromodels is proposed. We consider the power supply system (PSS) of the district, which is characterised by power supply from general-purpose power grids, as well as having its own generation of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES). Such a local electric power system (LES) under certain conditions can be operated as an independent balanced electrical facility. For optimal operation of the LES under these conditions, it is necessary to predict its power consumption schedules. The proposed macromodelling method allows to develop deterministic models of power consumption with the required accuracy on the basis of retrospective information without the use of data preprocessing procedures. The solution to the problem of forecasting electricity consumption schedules is simplified by using only basic or deterministic characteristics in the construction of the model. These include fractal properties of PSS load schedules.
Keywords:
power supply system, urban development, power consumption forecasting, macromodelling, fractal propertiesReferences
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Authors
Daniyar Jarykbassovdaniyarjarykbassov@yandex.kz
Academy of Logistics and Transport Kazakhstan
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0717-7082
Authors
Petr LezhniukInstitute of Renewable Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9366-3553
Authors
Iryna HunkoVinnytsia National Technical University Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2868-4056
Authors
Vladyslav LysyiInstitute of Renewable Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0009-0007-0211-9100
Authors
Lyubov DobrovolskaLutsk National Technical University Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8175-7635
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