Comparison of selected mathematical functions for the analysis of growth behavior of items and physical interpretation of Avrami-Weibull function

Abstract

Empirical data of sigmoidal-shaped y(t) growth behavior of different types of items, such as papers and citations earned by individual and all successively published papers of selected top-cited authors, germination of tomato seeds and three different bacteria, are analyzed and compared by Avrami-Weibull, Verhulst (logistic) and Gompertz functions. It was found that: (1) Avrami-Weibull function describes different types of the data better than Gompertz and Verhulst funtions, and (2), in comparison with Verhulst and Gompertz functions, Avrami-Weibull function, expressed in the form: y(t)/y_max = 1-exp[(t/Θ)^q] (where y_max is the maximum value of y(t) when t→∞, and Θ and q are constants), is equally very versatile in explaining the generation rate dy(t)/dt of items in terms of its parameters Θ and q. Using the basic concepts involved in the derivation of Avrami-Weibull function for overall crystallization from melt and supersaturated solution, the growth behavior of cumulative number y(t) of items produced at time t by individual (simple) sources and collectives or groups of simple sources (i.e. complex or composite sources) is presented. Comparison of the process of receiving of citations by papers with the processes of occurrence of chemical reactions and crystallization of solid phases from melts and supersaturated solutions shows that this process is similar to that of overall crystallization of solid phases from melts and solutions. Analysis of growth of citations using Avrami-Weibull function to individual papers published by different authors shows that 1 < q < 4 for most cases. This suggests that the process of citations to individual articles is mainly determined by progressive nucleation mode involving both diffusion and integration of published knowledge.