Modelling Regional Sustainable Development in Ukrainian Crisis and War

Artykuł bada wpływ czynników kryzysowych o charakterze siły wyższej, które pojawiły się w ukraińskiej gospodarce w wyniku globalnej recesji, wydarzeń z lat 2014-2021: aneksja Krymu, tymczasowa okupacja części terenów przemysłowych obwodów donieckiego i ługańskiego, wojskowe operacje w Donbasie, walka z pandemią (COVID-19) i wojny w 2022 r. Na podstawie analizy oficjalnych wskaźników Państwowej Służby Statystyki Ukrainy wykazano, że czynniki te tworzą dodatkowy mnożnik efektów akceleracyjnych, które niekorzystnie wpływają na dynamikę produktu regionalnego brutto w warunkach kryzysowych. Stwierdzono, że skutkiem tych efektów jest przekształcenie sygnałów kryzysowych z fazy proaktywnej w aktywną. Konstrukcja wskaźników korelacji mapy cieplnej GRP pozwoliła na stwierdzenie istnienia dysproporcji między rozwojem gospodarczym i społecznym regionów. Zbudowanie modelu regresji liniowej pozwoliło na wyciągnięcie wniosków na temat istniejącej dysproporcji regionów GRP w okresie kryzysu i wojny.

Słowa kluczowe:

czynniki kryzysowe, produkt regionalny brutto, zrównoważony, wojna, ozwój gospodarczy, efekt mnożnikowy, efekt akceleracji, transformacja sygnałów kryzysowych, mapa korelacji ciepła

Bibliografia

BARTON R. M., 1993, The Crisis Management, Oxford Press Publishers, Oxford.

BERUMEN A., 2013, The Impact of the Crisis on the Economic Development of Mining Regions in Europe, Problemas del Desarrollo, 45(176): 83-106. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-7036(14)70851-X

BLANCHARD O., MITALI D., HAMID F., 2010, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring: 263-323, https://www.brookings.edu/wpcontent/uploads/2016/07/2010a_bpea_blanchard.pdf.

COOMBSA T., LAUFERB T., 2015, Global Crisis Management – Current Research and Future Directions, Journal of International Management, https://tarjomefa.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/290-English-TarjomeFa.pdf.

DUCEPPE E., PARLOW J., MACDONALD P., LYONS K., MCMULLEN K., SRINATHAN S., SESSLER D., 2017, Canadian Cardiovascular Society guidelines on perioperative cardiac risk assessment and management for patients who undergo noncardiac surgery, Canadian Journal of Cardiology, 33: 17-32. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cjca.2016.09.008

EMILOVA І., 2022, The Anti-Crisis Management in The Process of Global Integration, Globalization, Innovation and Development, Trends and Prospects, 45-50, https://doi.org/10.18662/lumproc/gidtp2022/05. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18662/lumproc/gidtp2022/05

FITCH RATINGS, 2022, Ukraine, https://www.fitchra-tings.com/entity/ukraine-80442268.

FROLOVA L., YERMAK S., SMOLIAR L., ILYASH O., & BAVYKO O., 2021, Modeling of the economic system actors behavior in the crisis period of COVID-19 pandemic, Actual issues of modern development of socio-economic sys-tems in terms of the COVID-19 pandemic: scientific monograph: 158-171.

GANDOLFO G., 1991, Economic Dynamics, Springer, 612 p.

GURTNER B., 2010, The Financial and Economic Crisis and Developing Countries, International Development Policy, 1: 189-213. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4000/poldev.144

HICKS J. R., 1975, Value and Capital: An Inquiry into some Fundamental Principles of Economic Theory, Oxford University Press.

HRYNKEVYCH S., ILYASH O., ILICH L., KOZLOVSKYI S., BUHAICHUK N., 2020, Economic Assessment of the Relationship Between Housing and Communal Infrastructure Development Factors and Population Quality of Life in Ukraine, Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 16(3): 93-108. DOI: https://doi.org/10.14254/1800-5845/2020.16-3.8

ILYASH O., LUPAK R., VASYLTSIV N., TROFYMENKO O. and DZHADAN I., 2021, Modelling of the Dependencies of Industrial Development on Marketing Efficiency, Innovation and Technological Activity Indicators. Ekonomika, 100(1): 94–116, https://doi.org/10.15388/Ekon.2021.1.6. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15388/Ekon.2021.1.6

KABINET MINITRIV UKRAINY, 2021, National Economic Strategy Of Ukraine For The Period Up To 2030, https://www.kmu.gov.ua/npas/pro-zatverdzhennya-nacionalnoyi-eko-a179.

KHAN NU., LI S., SAFDAR MN, & KHAN ZU, 2019, The Role of Entrepreneurial Strategy, Network Ties, Human and Financial Capital in New Venture Performance, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(1):41, https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12010041. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12010041

KYIV SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS, 2022, Project on the collection, evaluation and analysis of information on the material losses of Ukraine from the war with Russia, Official website of the Kyiv School of Economics, https://kse.ua/ua/russia-will-pay.

KOZIUK V., HAYDA Y., DLUHOPOLSKYI O, KOZLOVSKYI S., 2020, Ecological performance: ethnic fragmentation versus governance quality and sustainable development, Problemy Ekorozwoju/ Problems of Sustainable Development, 15(1): 53-64. DOI: https://doi.org/10.35784/pe.2020.1.06

KOZLOVSKYI S. V., 2010, Economic policy as a basic element for the mechanism of managing development factors in contemporary economic systems, Actual Problems of Economics, 1(103): 13-20.

KOZLOVSKYI S., BILENKO D., KUZHELIEV M., LAVROV R., KOZLOVSKYI V., MAZUR H., TARANYCH A., 2020, The system dynamic model of the labor migrant policy in economic growth affected by COVID-19, Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management, 6 (Special Issue: Covid-19): 95-106.

KOZLOVSKYI S., FONITSKA T., 2013, Modern theoretical and methodological approaches to the budget management system forming, Economic Annals-XXI, 3-4: 35-37.

KOZLOVSKYI S. V., GERASYMENKO Y. V., KOZLOVSKYI V. O., 2010, Conceptual grounds for construction of support system for investment decision-making within agroindustrial complex of Ukraine, Actual Problems of Economics, 5(107): 263-275.

KREIDYCH I., ROSHCHYNA N., & KAZAK O., 2018, The application of monetary incentive policy in current economic conditions, Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 4(5): 129-139. DOI: https://doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2018-4-5-129-139

LEVA M., BALFE N., MCALEER B., & ROCKE M., 2017, Risk registers: Structuring data collection to develop risk intelligence, Safety Science, 100: 143-156. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2017.05.009

MACDONALD D., 2016, Crisis Theory and Types of Crisis, http://dustinkmacdonald.com/crisis-theory-types-crisis.

MAZHARA G., & KAPUSTYAN V., 2022, Modeling dynamic consumer behavior in the commodity market, Financial and Credit Activity Problems of Theory and Practice, 2(43): 137-145. DOI: https://doi.org/10.55643/fcaptp.2.43.2022.3525

MOODY`S, 2022, Global forecasts slip with Russia’s invasion on Ukraine, https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Global-growth-forecasts-slip-with-Russias-invasion-of-Ukraine--PBC_1330081?cid=YJZ7YNGSROZ5414.

MUNNS W., POULSEN V., GALA W., MARSHALL S., REA A., SORENSEN, M., STACKELBERG K., 2017, Eco-system services in risk assessment and management, Integr. Environ. Assess. Manag., 13: 62-73. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.1835

MUNASINGHE M., 1993, Environmental Economics and Biodiversity Management in Developing Countries, Ambio, 22(2/3): 126–135.

NBU, Department of Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis, 2022, Monthly Macroeconomic and Monetary Review, July, https://bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/article/MM_2022-07_eng.pdf?v=4.

PETRUK I., 2020, Сonceptual approaches to anti-crisis management of regional development, Innovative economy, 10(3-4): 105-112. DOI: https://doi.org/10.37332/2309-1533.2020.3-4.15

OECD, 2022, Economic Outlook: The Price of War, June, https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/.

OXFORD ECONOMICS, 2022, Ukraine, https://blog.oxfordeconomics.com/content/tag/ukraine.

PETRU M., 2013, On The Role Of Implementing A Database System In The Risk Communication Process, Young Economists Journal, 10(20): 255-258.

PRETORIUS O., DREWES, E., ASWEGEN M., MALAN G., 2021, Policy Approach towards Achieving Regional Economic Resilience in Developing Countries: Evidence from the SADC, Sustainability, 13: 2674. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su13052674

SCHOTTKE D., & POLLAK A., 2001, Emergency Medical Responder: Your First Response in Emergency Care, Ameri-can Association of Orthopaedic Surgeons. Jones & Bartlett: Suffolk, MA.

S&P Global, 2022, S&P Global Official Website, https://www.spglobal.com/en/.

STATE STATISTICS COMMITTEE OF UKRAINE, 2022, Official Website, http://ukrstat.gov.ua.

TANEJA S., PRYOR M., SEWELL S., RECUERO A., 2014, Strategic Crisis Management: A Basis for Renewal and Crisis Prevention, Journal of Management Policy & Practice, 15(1): 78-85, http://www.na-businesspress.com/JMPP/TanejaSWeb151.pdf

TROFYMENKO O., SHEVCHUK O., KOBA N., TASHCHEIEV Y., PAVLENCO T., 2021, Knowledge and Innovation Management for Transforming the Field of Renewable Energy, Artificial Intelligence and Sustainable Computing for Smart City. AIS2C2 2021. Communications in Computer and Information Science, 1434: 73-87. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-82322-1_6

UKRAINIAN INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE, 2022, Economic Security Of The State And Scientific And Technological Aspects Of Its Provision, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bVEYJ4Zgj3f8XPHh1C2h99TvfLOh2snh/view.

UNHCR, 2022, Ukraine Refugee Situation, 2022, https://reporting.unhcr.org/ukraine-situa-tion#:~:text=The%20Russian%20Federation's%20military%20offensive,forced%20to%20see.38k%20refuge%20abroad.

VOLOSHIN V., GORDIENKO N., 2000, The concept of sustainable development of Ukraine (in Ukrainian), BMT, 17 p.

WCED (WORLD COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT, 1987, Our common future, Oxford University Press, New York, https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/ content/documents/5987our-common-future.pdf.

WRIGHT B., 2014, The Cocoanut Grove Nightclub Fire Happened 72 Years Ago in Boston, http://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2014/11/28/the-cocoanut-grove-nightclub-fire-happened-72-years-ago-in-boston.

Shevchuk, O., Ilyash, O., Mazhara, G., Roshchyna, N., Hrynkevych, S., Lavrov, R., & Kozlovskyi, S. (2023). Modelowanie zrównoważonego rozwoju regionalnego podczas kryzysu i wojny w Ukrainie. Problemy Ekorozwoju , 18(1), 37–50. https://doi.org/10.35784/pe.2023.1.04

##plugins.generic.usageStats.downloads##

##plugins.generic.usageStats.noStats##

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.sidebar##

Numer Tom 18 Nr 1 (2023)

Archiwum

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##

DOI

Authors

Abstrakt

Słowa kluczowe:

Bibliografia

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.details##

Licencja

##plugins.generic.usageStats.downloads##