Modelowanie zrównoważonego rozwoju regionalnego podczas kryzysu i wojny w Ukrainie
Olena Shevchuk
National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4117-1474
Olha Ilyash
National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7882-3942
Glib Mazhara
National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1860-756X
Nadiia Roshchyna
National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2035-8846
Svitlana Hrynkevych
National University, Lviv Polytechnic, Lviv, Ukraine (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3563-3989
Ruslan Lavrov
PHEI European University, Kyiv, Ukraine (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9655-4467
Serhii Kozlovskyi
Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0707-4996
Abstrakt
Artykuł bada wpływ czynników kryzysowych o charakterze siły wyższej, które pojawiły się w ukraińskiej gospodarce w wyniku globalnej recesji, wydarzeń z lat 2014-2021: aneksja Krymu, tymczasowa okupacja części terenów przemysłowych obwodów donieckiego i ługańskiego, wojskowe operacje w Donbasie, walka z pandemią (COVID-19) i wojny w 2022 r. Na podstawie analizy oficjalnych wskaźników Państwowej Służby Statystyki Ukrainy wykazano, że czynniki te tworzą dodatkowy mnożnik efektów akceleracyjnych, które niekorzystnie wpływają na dynamikę produktu regionalnego brutto w warunkach kryzysowych. Stwierdzono, że skutkiem tych efektów jest przekształcenie sygnałów kryzysowych z fazy proaktywnej w aktywną. Konstrukcja wskaźników korelacji mapy cieplnej GRP pozwoliła na stwierdzenie istnienia dysproporcji między rozwojem gospodarczym i społecznym regionów. Zbudowanie modelu regresji liniowej pozwoliło na wyciągnięcie wniosków na temat istniejącej dysproporcji regionów GRP w okresie kryzysu i wojny.
Słowa kluczowe:
czynniki kryzysowe, produkt regionalny brutto, zrównoważony, wojna, ozwój gospodarczy, efekt mnożnikowy, efekt akceleracji, transformacja sygnałów kryzysowych, mapa korelacji ciepłaBibliografia
BARTON R. M., 1993, The Crisis Management, Oxford Press Publishers, Oxford.
Google Scholar
BERUMEN A., 2013, The Impact of the Crisis on the Economic Development of Mining Regions in Europe, Problemas del Desarrollo, 45(176): 83-106.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-7036(14)70851-X
Google Scholar
BLANCHARD O., MITALI D., HAMID F., 2010, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring: 263-323, https://www.brookings.edu/wpcontent/uploads/2016/07/2010a_bpea_blanchard.pdf.
Google Scholar
COOMBSA T., LAUFERB T., 2015, Global Crisis Management – Current Research and Future Directions, Journal of International Management, https://tarjomefa.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/290-English-TarjomeFa.pdf.
Google Scholar
DUCEPPE E., PARLOW J., MACDONALD P., LYONS K., MCMULLEN K., SRINATHAN S., SESSLER D., 2017, Canadian Cardiovascular Society guidelines on perioperative cardiac risk assessment and management for patients who undergo noncardiac surgery, Canadian Journal of Cardiology, 33: 17-32.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cjca.2016.09.008
Google Scholar
EMILOVA І., 2022, The Anti-Crisis Management in The Process of Global Integration, Globalization, Innovation and Development, Trends and Prospects, 45-50, https://doi.org/10.18662/lumproc/gidtp2022/05.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.18662/lumproc/gidtp2022/05
Google Scholar
FITCH RATINGS, 2022, Ukraine, https://www.fitchra-tings.com/entity/ukraine-80442268.
Google Scholar
FROLOVA L., YERMAK S., SMOLIAR L., ILYASH O., & BAVYKO O., 2021, Modeling of the economic system actors behavior in the crisis period of COVID-19 pandemic, Actual issues of modern development of socio-economic sys-tems in terms of the COVID-19 pandemic: scientific monograph: 158-171.
Google Scholar
GANDOLFO G., 1991, Economic Dynamics, Springer, 612 p.
Google Scholar
GURTNER B., 2010, The Financial and Economic Crisis and Developing Countries, International Development Policy, 1: 189-213.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4000/poldev.144
Google Scholar
HICKS J. R., 1975, Value and Capital: An Inquiry into some Fundamental Principles of Economic Theory, Oxford University Press.
Google Scholar
HRYNKEVYCH S., ILYASH O., ILICH L., KOZLOVSKYI S., BUHAICHUK N., 2020, Economic Assessment of the Relationship Between Housing and Communal Infrastructure Development Factors and Population Quality of Life in Ukraine, Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 16(3): 93-108.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.14254/1800-5845/2020.16-3.8
Google Scholar
ILYASH O., LUPAK R., VASYLTSIV N., TROFYMENKO O. and DZHADAN I., 2021, Modelling of the Dependencies of Industrial Development on Marketing Efficiency, Innovation and Technological Activity Indicators. Ekonomika, 100(1): 94–116, https://doi.org/10.15388/Ekon.2021.1.6.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15388/Ekon.2021.1.6
Google Scholar
KABINET MINITRIV UKRAINY, 2021, National Economic Strategy Of Ukraine For The Period Up To 2030, https://www.kmu.gov.ua/npas/pro-zatverdzhennya-nacionalnoyi-eko-a179.
Google Scholar
KHAN NU., LI S., SAFDAR MN, & KHAN ZU, 2019, The Role of Entrepreneurial Strategy, Network Ties, Human and Financial Capital in New Venture Performance, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(1):41, https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12010041.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12010041
Google Scholar
KYIV SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS, 2022, Project on the collection, evaluation and analysis of information on the material losses of Ukraine from the war with Russia, Official website of the Kyiv School of Economics, https://kse.ua/ua/russia-will-pay.
Google Scholar
KOZIUK V., HAYDA Y., DLUHOPOLSKYI O, KOZLOVSKYI S., 2020, Ecological performance: ethnic fragmentation versus governance quality and sustainable development, Problemy Ekorozwoju/ Problems of Sustainable Development, 15(1): 53-64.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.35784/pe.2020.1.06
Google Scholar
KOZLOVSKYI S. V., 2010, Economic policy as a basic element for the mechanism of managing development factors in contemporary economic systems, Actual Problems of Economics, 1(103): 13-20.
Google Scholar
KOZLOVSKYI S., BILENKO D., KUZHELIEV M., LAVROV R., KOZLOVSKYI V., MAZUR H., TARANYCH A., 2020, The system dynamic model of the labor migrant policy in economic growth affected by COVID-19, Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management, 6 (Special Issue: Covid-19): 95-106.
Google Scholar
KOZLOVSKYI S., FONITSKA T., 2013, Modern theoretical and methodological approaches to the budget management system forming, Economic Annals-XXI, 3-4: 35-37.
Google Scholar
KOZLOVSKYI S. V., GERASYMENKO Y. V., KOZLOVSKYI V. O., 2010, Conceptual grounds for construction of support system for investment decision-making within agroindustrial complex of Ukraine, Actual Problems of Economics, 5(107): 263-275.
Google Scholar
KREIDYCH I., ROSHCHYNA N., & KAZAK O., 2018, The application of monetary incentive policy in current economic conditions, Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 4(5): 129-139.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2018-4-5-129-139
Google Scholar
LEVA M., BALFE N., MCALEER B., & ROCKE M., 2017, Risk registers: Structuring data collection to develop risk intelligence, Safety Science, 100: 143-156.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2017.05.009
Google Scholar
MACDONALD D., 2016, Crisis Theory and Types of Crisis, http://dustinkmacdonald.com/crisis-theory-types-crisis.
Google Scholar
MAZHARA G., & KAPUSTYAN V., 2022, Modeling dynamic consumer behavior in the commodity market, Financial and Credit Activity Problems of Theory and Practice, 2(43): 137-145.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.55643/fcaptp.2.43.2022.3525
Google Scholar
MOODY`S, 2022, Global forecasts slip with Russia’s invasion on Ukraine, https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Global-growth-forecasts-slip-with-Russias-invasion-of-Ukraine--PBC_1330081?cid=YJZ7YNGSROZ5414.
Google Scholar
MUNNS W., POULSEN V., GALA W., MARSHALL S., REA A., SORENSEN, M., STACKELBERG K., 2017, Eco-system services in risk assessment and management, Integr. Environ. Assess. Manag., 13: 62-73.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.1835
Google Scholar
MUNASINGHE M., 1993, Environmental Economics and Biodiversity Management in Developing Countries, Ambio, 22(2/3): 126–135.
Google Scholar
NBU, Department of Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis, 2022, Monthly Macroeconomic and Monetary Review, July, https://bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/article/MM_2022-07_eng.pdf?v=4.
Google Scholar
PETRUK I., 2020, Сonceptual approaches to anti-crisis management of regional development, Innovative economy, 10(3-4): 105-112.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.37332/2309-1533.2020.3-4.15
Google Scholar
OECD, 2022, Economic Outlook: The Price of War, June, https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/.
Google Scholar
OXFORD ECONOMICS, 2022, Ukraine, https://blog.oxfordeconomics.com/content/tag/ukraine.
Google Scholar
PETRU M., 2013, On The Role Of Implementing A Database System In The Risk Communication Process, Young Economists Journal, 10(20): 255-258.
Google Scholar
PRETORIUS O., DREWES, E., ASWEGEN M., MALAN G., 2021, Policy Approach towards Achieving Regional Economic Resilience in Developing Countries: Evidence from the SADC, Sustainability, 13: 2674.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su13052674
Google Scholar
SCHOTTKE D., & POLLAK A., 2001, Emergency Medical Responder: Your First Response in Emergency Care, Ameri-can Association of Orthopaedic Surgeons. Jones & Bartlett: Suffolk, MA.
Google Scholar
S&P Global, 2022, S&P Global Official Website, https://www.spglobal.com/en/.
Google Scholar
STATE STATISTICS COMMITTEE OF UKRAINE, 2022, Official Website, http://ukrstat.gov.ua.
Google Scholar
TANEJA S., PRYOR M., SEWELL S., RECUERO A., 2014, Strategic Crisis Management: A Basis for Renewal and Crisis Prevention, Journal of Management Policy & Practice, 15(1): 78-85, http://www.na-businesspress.com/JMPP/TanejaSWeb151.pdf
Google Scholar
TROFYMENKO O., SHEVCHUK O., KOBA N., TASHCHEIEV Y., PAVLENCO T., 2021, Knowledge and Innovation Management for Transforming the Field of Renewable Energy, Artificial Intelligence and Sustainable Computing for Smart City. AIS2C2 2021. Communications in Computer and Information Science, 1434: 73-87.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-82322-1_6
Google Scholar
UKRAINIAN INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE, 2022, Economic Security Of The State And Scientific And Technological Aspects Of Its Provision, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bVEYJ4Zgj3f8XPHh1C2h99TvfLOh2snh/view.
Google Scholar
UNHCR, 2022, Ukraine Refugee Situation, 2022, https://reporting.unhcr.org/ukraine-situa-tion#:~:text=The%20Russian%20Federation's%20military%20offensive,forced%20to%20see.38k%20refuge%20abroad.
Google Scholar
VOLOSHIN V., GORDIENKO N., 2000, The concept of sustainable development of Ukraine (in Ukrainian), BMT, 17 p.
Google Scholar
WCED (WORLD COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT, 1987, Our common future, Oxford University Press, New York, https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/ content/documents/5987our-common-future.pdf.
Google Scholar
WRIGHT B., 2014, The Cocoanut Grove Nightclub Fire Happened 72 Years Ago in Boston, http://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2014/11/28/the-cocoanut-grove-nightclub-fire-happened-72-years-ago-in-boston.
Google Scholar
Autorzy
Olena ShevchukNational Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4117-1474
Autorzy
Olha IlyashNational Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7882-3942
Autorzy
Glib MazharaNational Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1860-756X
Autorzy
Nadiia RoshchynaNational Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2035-8846
Autorzy
Svitlana HrynkevychNational University, Lviv Polytechnic, Lviv, Ukraine Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3563-3989
Autorzy
Ruslan LavrovPHEI European University, Kyiv, Ukraine Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9655-4467
Autorzy
Serhii KozlovskyiVasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0707-4996
Statystyki
Abstract views: 136PDF downloads: 57
Licencja
Utwór dostępny jest na licencji Creative Commons Uznanie autorstwa – Na tych samych warunkach 4.0 Miedzynarodowe.