Wpływ czynników demograficznych na rozwój ekonomiczny

Mykola Pasichnyi


Faculty of Finance and Accounting, Department of Finance, Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7663-776X

Anton Nepytaliuk


Faculty of Economics, Department of Management and Behavioral Economics, Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7890-3889

Abstrakt

W artykule zaproponowano zaktualizowane podejście do oceny wkładu czynników demograficznych w rozwój gospodarczy. Prognozowane zmiany w produkcji publicznej rozpatrzono w kontekście ram instytucjonalnych. Zbadano zależność między głównymi zmiennymi demograficznymi a wzrostem gospodarczym dla próby 45 rozwiniętych i wschodzących gospodarek rynkowych w latach 1990-2017, stosując metodę niezrównoważonych danych panelowych. W badanym okresie istotny wzrost średniej długości życia niekorzystnie wpłynął na dynamikę realnego PKB na mieszkańca. Badanie empiryczne wykazało, że powyższa zmienna demograficzna była silnie powiązana z nominalnym PKB na mieszkańca. W gospodarkach rozwiniętych badany wskaźnik demograficzny był znacznie wyższy niż w gospodarkach wschodzących. Okazało się, że wzrost liczby osób w wieku produkcyjnym znacznie zmniejszył dynamikę realnego PKB, ale połączenie to nie było silne. W perspektywie długoterminowej należy wziąć pod uwagę ramy instytucjonalne, aby osiągnąć korzystne wyniki publiczne. Należy prognozować i kalibrować zmienne demograficzne z uwzględnieniem endogenicznych czynników ekonomicznych. Liczą się zarówno inwestycje publiczne, jak i prywatne.


Słowa kluczowe:

populacja, kapitał ludzki, zrównoważoność demograficzna, rozwój ekonomiczny

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Opublikowane
2021-01-04

Cited By / Share

Pasichnyi, M., & Nepytaliuk, A. (2021). Wpływ czynników demograficznych na rozwój ekonomiczny. Problemy Ekorozwoju Problems of Sustainable Development, 16(1), 219–229. https://doi.org/10.35784/pe.2021.1.24

Autorzy

Mykola Pasichnyi 

Faculty of Finance and Accounting, Department of Finance, Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7663-776X

Autorzy

Anton Nepytaliuk 

Faculty of Economics, Department of Management and Behavioral Economics, Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7890-3889

Statystyki

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