Wpływ czynników demograficznych na rozwój ekonomiczny
Mykola Pasichnyi
Faculty of Finance and Accounting, Department of Finance, Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7663-776X
Anton Nepytaliuk
Faculty of Economics, Department of Management and Behavioral Economics, Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7890-3889
Abstrakt
W artykule zaproponowano zaktualizowane podejście do oceny wkładu czynników demograficznych w rozwój gospodarczy. Prognozowane zmiany w produkcji publicznej rozpatrzono w kontekście ram instytucjonalnych. Zbadano zależność między głównymi zmiennymi demograficznymi a wzrostem gospodarczym dla próby 45 rozwiniętych i wschodzących gospodarek rynkowych w latach 1990-2017, stosując metodę niezrównoważonych danych panelowych. W badanym okresie istotny wzrost średniej długości życia niekorzystnie wpłynął na dynamikę realnego PKB na mieszkańca. Badanie empiryczne wykazało, że powyższa zmienna demograficzna była silnie powiązana z nominalnym PKB na mieszkańca. W gospodarkach rozwiniętych badany wskaźnik demograficzny był znacznie wyższy niż w gospodarkach wschodzących. Okazało się, że wzrost liczby osób w wieku produkcyjnym znacznie zmniejszył dynamikę realnego PKB, ale połączenie to nie było silne. W perspektywie długoterminowej należy wziąć pod uwagę ramy instytucjonalne, aby osiągnąć korzystne wyniki publiczne. Należy prognozować i kalibrować zmienne demograficzne z uwzględnieniem endogenicznych czynników ekonomicznych. Liczą się zarówno inwestycje publiczne, jak i prywatne.
Słowa kluczowe:
populacja, kapitał ludzki, zrównoważoność demograficzna, rozwój ekonomicznyBibliografia
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Autorzy
Mykola PasichnyiFaculty of Finance and Accounting, Department of Finance, Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7663-776X
Autorzy
Anton NepytaliukFaculty of Economics, Department of Management and Behavioral Economics, Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7890-3889
Statystyki
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Licencja
Utwór dostępny jest na licencji Creative Commons Uznanie autorstwa – Na tych samych warunkach 4.0 Miedzynarodowe.