Wpływ światowego rynku zbóż na występowanie niedożywienia ludzkości w czasie wojny na Ukrainie

Serhii Kozlovskyi

s.kozlovskyy@donnu.edu.ua
Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0707-4996

Allam Yousuf


Erasmus University College, Rotterdam, The Netherlands (Holandia)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0262-1890

Vira Butenko


National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8814-9392

Tetiana Kulinich


Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, Ukraine (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0110-7080

Olena Bohdaniuk


National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine (Zjednoczone Emiraty Arabskie)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8354-9933

Liudmyla Nikolenko


Donetsk State University of Internal Affairs, Kropyvnytskyi, Ukraine (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3437-6968

Ruslan Lavrov


T.H. Shevchenko National University «Chernihiv Colehium», Chernihiv, Ukraine (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9655-4467

Abstrakt

Światowa produkcja i podaż zbóż, a także handel nimi, zapasy i straty są ważnymi wskaźnikami światowego rynku zbóż. Odgrywają ogromną rolę w zapewnieniu bezpieczeństwa żywnościowego. Celem badań jest identyfikacja zależności wskaźników światowego rynku zbóż (produkcja, podaż, straty, handel, zapasy) a poziomem niedożywienia (PoU) wśród ludności świata. Na podstawie danych Organizacji Narodów Zjednoczonych ds. Wyżywienia i Rolnictwa (FAO) przeprowadzono analizę korelacji-regresji pomiędzy wskaźnikami światowego rynku zbóż, w szczególności: rynkiem pszenicy, rynkiem paszowym zbóż, rynkiem rynek ryżu i PoU światowej populacji w latach gospodarczych 2013/14 – 2020/2021. Wykazano, że istnieje ścisła, statystycznie wiarygodna zależność pomiędzy wymienionymi wskaźnikami, z wyjątkiem zapasów zbóż i POU. Analiza światowego rynku zbóż wykazała, że wśród wskaźników charakteryzujących jego warunki znajduje się wskaźnik handlu zbożami
(r = 0,851; D = 0,724; F = 3,968, (F > F t ); z = 1,26; rL = 0,37; rU = 0,97) wykazuje najwyższy poziomem korelacji. Stwierdzono, że wraz ze wzrostem wolumenu światowego handlu zbożami o 1 milion ton poziom PoU wzrośnie o 0,018%. Przegląd źródeł literackich dowodzi, że problemu zapewnienia bezpieczeństwa żywnościowego, w szczególności w zakresie ograniczenia poziomu głodu i niedożywienia, nie można rozwiązać jedynie poprzez walkę ze zmianami klimatycznymi, przezwyciężanie problemów społeczno-gospodarczych i militarnych, walkę z pandemiami itp. Jego rozwiązanie w dużej mierze zależy od sprawiedliwego, jednolitego eksportu i importu produktów spożywczych, co potwierdzają wyliczenia. Odrębnym kierunkiem rozwiązania problemu szerzenia się niedożywienia jest eliminowanie polityki krajów wysoko rozwiniętych w zakresie stosowania indywidualnych sankcji wobec krajów o wysokich wartościach PoU, w szczególności Republiki Środkowoafrykańskiej, Madagaskaru, Haiti, Afganistanu, Czadu, Kongo, Lesotho, Liberii i Mozambiku.


Słowa kluczowe:

bezpieczeństwo żywnościowe, produkcja, zaopatrzenie, handel, straty, zapasy, pszenica, zboża pastewne, ryż, niedożywienie, głód, analiza regresji, światowy rynek zbóż, wojna

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Opublikowane
2024-01-08

Cited By / Share

Kozlovskyi, S., Yousuf, A., Butenko, V., Kulinich, T., Bohdaniuk, O., Nikolenko, L., & Lavrov, R. (2024). Wpływ światowego rynku zbóż na występowanie niedożywienia ludzkości w czasie wojny na Ukrainie . Problemy Ekorozwoju Problems of Sustainable Development, 19(1), 31–42. https://doi.org/10.35784/preko.5748

Autorzy

Serhii Kozlovskyi 
s.kozlovskyy@donnu.edu.ua
Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0707-4996

Autorzy

Allam Yousuf 

Erasmus University College, Rotterdam, The Netherlands Holandia
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0262-1890

Autorzy

Vira Butenko 

National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8814-9392

Autorzy

Tetiana Kulinich 

Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, Ukraine Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0110-7080

Autorzy

Olena Bohdaniuk 

National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine Zjednoczone Emiraty Arabskie
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8354-9933

Autorzy

Liudmyla Nikolenko 

Donetsk State University of Internal Affairs, Kropyvnytskyi, Ukraine Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3437-6968

Autorzy

Ruslan Lavrov 

T.H. Shevchenko National University «Chernihiv Colehium», Chernihiv, Ukraine Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9655-4467

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