Wpływ światowego rynku zbóż na występowanie niedożywienia ludzkości w czasie wojny na Ukrainie
Serhii Kozlovskyi
s.kozlovskyy@donnu.edu.uaVasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0707-4996
Allam Yousuf
Erasmus University College, Rotterdam, The Netherlands (Holandia)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0262-1890
Vira Butenko
National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8814-9392
Tetiana Kulinich
Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, Ukraine (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0110-7080
Olena Bohdaniuk
National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine (Zjednoczone Emiraty Arabskie)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8354-9933
Liudmyla Nikolenko
Donetsk State University of Internal Affairs, Kropyvnytskyi, Ukraine (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3437-6968
Ruslan Lavrov
T.H. Shevchenko National University «Chernihiv Colehium», Chernihiv, Ukraine (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9655-4467
Abstrakt
Światowa produkcja i podaż zbóż, a także handel nimi, zapasy i straty są ważnymi wskaźnikami światowego rynku zbóż. Odgrywają ogromną rolę w zapewnieniu bezpieczeństwa żywnościowego. Celem badań jest identyfikacja zależności wskaźników światowego rynku zbóż (produkcja, podaż, straty, handel, zapasy) a poziomem niedożywienia (PoU) wśród ludności świata. Na podstawie danych Organizacji Narodów Zjednoczonych ds. Wyżywienia i Rolnictwa (FAO) przeprowadzono analizę korelacji-regresji pomiędzy wskaźnikami światowego rynku zbóż, w szczególności: rynkiem pszenicy, rynkiem paszowym zbóż, rynkiem rynek ryżu i PoU światowej populacji w latach gospodarczych 2013/14 – 2020/2021. Wykazano, że istnieje ścisła, statystycznie wiarygodna zależność pomiędzy wymienionymi wskaźnikami, z wyjątkiem zapasów zbóż i POU. Analiza światowego rynku zbóż wykazała, że wśród wskaźników charakteryzujących jego warunki znajduje się wskaźnik handlu zbożami
(r = 0,851; D = 0,724; F = 3,968, (F > F t ); z = 1,26; rL = 0,37; rU = 0,97) wykazuje najwyższy poziomem korelacji. Stwierdzono, że wraz ze wzrostem wolumenu światowego handlu zbożami o 1 milion ton poziom PoU wzrośnie o 0,018%. Przegląd źródeł literackich dowodzi, że problemu zapewnienia bezpieczeństwa żywnościowego, w szczególności w zakresie ograniczenia poziomu głodu i niedożywienia, nie można rozwiązać jedynie poprzez walkę ze zmianami klimatycznymi, przezwyciężanie problemów społeczno-gospodarczych i militarnych, walkę z pandemiami itp. Jego rozwiązanie w dużej mierze zależy od sprawiedliwego, jednolitego eksportu i importu produktów spożywczych, co potwierdzają wyliczenia. Odrębnym kierunkiem rozwiązania problemu szerzenia się niedożywienia jest eliminowanie polityki krajów wysoko rozwiniętych w zakresie stosowania indywidualnych sankcji wobec krajów o wysokich wartościach PoU, w szczególności Republiki Środkowoafrykańskiej, Madagaskaru, Haiti, Afganistanu, Czadu, Kongo, Lesotho, Liberii i Mozambiku.
Słowa kluczowe:
bezpieczeństwo żywnościowe, produkcja, zaopatrzenie, handel, straty, zapasy, pszenica, zboża pastewne, ryż, niedożywienie, głód, analiza regresji, światowy rynek zbóż, wojnaBibliografia
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Autorzy
Serhii Kozlovskyis.kozlovskyy@donnu.edu.ua
Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0707-4996
Autorzy
Allam YousufErasmus University College, Rotterdam, The Netherlands Holandia
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0262-1890
Autorzy
Vira ButenkoNational University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8814-9392
Autorzy
Tetiana KulinichLviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, Ukraine Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0110-7080
Autorzy
Olena BohdaniukNational University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine Zjednoczone Emiraty Arabskie
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8354-9933
Autorzy
Liudmyla NikolenkoDonetsk State University of Internal Affairs, Kropyvnytskyi, Ukraine Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3437-6968
Autorzy
Ruslan LavrovT.H. Shevchenko National University «Chernihiv Colehium», Chernihiv, Ukraine Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9655-4467
Statystyki
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