Związek pomiędzy ekspansją ekologicznych gruntów rolnych a emisją gazów cieplarnianych w Europie w kontekście wdrażania Celów zrównoważonego rozwoju
Serhii Kozlovskyi
s.kozlovskyy@donnu.edu.uaVasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0707-4996
Ivan Zayukov
State University of Trade and Economics, Vinnytsia Institute of Trade and Economics (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7225-2827
Volodymyr Kozlovskyi
Vinnytsia National Technical University (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0955-4347
Oleksandr Tregubov
Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0397-5570
Sviatoslav Storchak
Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0009-0009-2119-3351
Viktor Mishchenko
Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0009-0008-7802-3700
Ruslan Lavrov
T.H. Shevchenko National University, Chernihiv Colehium (Ukraina)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9655-4467
Abstrakt
Społeczność globalna dąży do osiągnięcia ambitnych Celów Zrównoważonego Rozwoju. Istotnym aspektem realizacji Celów jest wprowadzenie produkcji ekologicznej w rolnictwie. Przyczyni się to między innymi do zerowego głodu (Cel 2); zapewnienia ludzkości alternatywnych źródeł energii (Cel 7); opracowania innowacyjnych rozwiązań (Cel 9); motywacji ludności do odpowiedzialnej konsumpcji, w tym żywności (Cel 12); walki ze zmianą klimatu (Cel 13); oraz zachowania ekosystemów zarówno na lądzie, jak i pod wodą (Cele 14-15). Ważnym obszarem realizacji wszystkich siedemnastu celów jest wprowadzenie produkcji ekologicznej w rolnictwie. Przyczyni się to do zapewnienia ludności żywności; poprawy zdrowia publicznego; przezwyciężenie problemów związanych z głodem, ubóstwem, złym stanem zdrowia, ograniczoną ilością czystej wody pitnej, niedoborami energii, wyczerpywaniem się zasobów naturalnych, zmianami klimatu i zanieczyszczeniem ekosystemów wodnych i lądowych. Kraje UE-27 muszą zredukować emisję gazów cieplarnianych do zera do 2050 r., co jest dodatkowym wyzwaniem. Z tego powodu w artykule postawiono hipotezę, że ekspansja ekologicznych gruntów rolnych potencjalnie doprowadzi do wzrostu emisji gazów cieplarnianych. W związku z tym celem artykułu jest przeprowadzenie badań empirycznych nad wpływem ekspansji ekologicznych gruntów rolnych na wzrost emisji gazów cieplarnianych w UE. Analiza korelacji i regresji oparta na wykorzystaniu dostępnych statystyk Eurostatu za okres 2014–2021 dla wybranych poszczególnych krajów europejskich wykazała, że większość krajów europejskich wykazuje wysoki stopień korelacji. Zgodnie z danymi ze wszystkich państw członkowskich UE (27) związek ten jest silny i wprost proporcjonalny. Stwierdzono, że wraz ze wzrostem powierzchni ekologicznych gruntów rolnych o 1% w UE27 emisja gazów cieplarnianych wzrośnie o 0,00000025 tys. ton. Obliczenia wykazały, że ceteris paribus emisja gazów cieplarnianych pod wpływem ekspansji ekologicznych gruntów rolnych może wzrosnąć o 62,4%. Wśród badanych krajów europejskich podobne tendencje obserwuje się w Danii, Niemczech, Estonii, Hiszpanii, Holandii, Portugalii, Rumunii, Finlandii, Szwajcarii i Wielkiej Brytanii. Tymczasem na Litwie i w Holandii zależność jest odwrotnie proporcjonalna. Słabą korelację, o czym świadczy obliczony współczynnik korelacji, obserwuje się w takich krajach europejskich jak Bułgaria (0,05); Polska (0,02); Słowacja (0,05). Aby wdrożyć Cele Zrównoważonego Rozwoju, zaleca się podjęcie działań mających na celu zmianę kultury konsumpcji żywności; efektywniejsze wykorzystanie technologii, metod, sprzętu, maszyn i mechanizmów rolniczych; racjonalne wykorzystanie odpadów.
Słowa kluczowe:
zrównoważony rozwój, produkcja organiczna, gazy cieplarniane, modelowanie, analiza korelacji i regresji, bezpieczeństwo ekonomiczne, bezpieczeństwo żywnościowe, sektor rolniczy, ekologia, gospodarka międzynarodowa, EuropaBibliografia
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Autorzy
Serhii Kozlovskyis.kozlovskyy@donnu.edu.ua
Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0707-4996
Autorzy
Ivan ZayukovState University of Trade and Economics, Vinnytsia Institute of Trade and Economics Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7225-2827
Autorzy
Volodymyr KozlovskyiVinnytsia National Technical University Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0955-4347
Autorzy
Oleksandr TregubovVasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0397-5570
Autorzy
Sviatoslav StorchakVasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0009-0009-2119-3351
Autorzy
Viktor MishchenkoVasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0009-0008-7802-3700
Autorzy
Ruslan LavrovT.H. Shevchenko National University, Chernihiv Colehium Ukraina
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9655-4467
Statystyki
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