Modelling Regional Sustainable Development in Ukrainian Crisis and War
Olena Shevchuk
National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4117-1474
Olha Ilyash
National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7882-3942
Glib Mazhara
National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1860-756X
Nadiia Roshchyna
National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2035-8846
Svitlana Hrynkevych
National University, Lviv Polytechnic, Lviv, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3563-3989
Ruslan Lavrov
PHEI European University, Kyiv, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9655-4467
Serhii Kozlovskyi
Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0707-4996
Abstract
The article investigates the impact of force majeure crisis factors that appeared in the Ukrainian economy as a result of the global recession, the events of 2014-2021: annexation of Crimea, temporary occupation of part of the industrial territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, military operations in Donbas, during the fight against pandemic (COVID-19) and war in 2022 on the stable development of regions. Based on the analysis of official indicators of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, it was proved that the said factors create additional multiplier and acceleration effects that adversely affect the dynamics of the gross regional product in the crisis conditions. It has been determined that the result of these effects is the transformation of crisis signals from a proactive to an active phase. The construction of a heat map of GRP correlation indicators made it possible to determine the existence of a disbalance between the economic and social development of the regions. Building a model of linear regression, allowed us to draw conclusions about the existing disbalance of GRP regions during the crisis and war.
Keywords:
crisis factors, gross regional product, sustainable, war, economic development, multiplier effect, acceleration effect, transformation of crisis signals, heat correlation mapReferences
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Authors
Olena ShevchukNational Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4117-1474
Authors
Olha IlyashNational Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7882-3942
Authors
Glib MazharaNational Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1860-756X
Authors
Nadiia RoshchynaNational Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2035-8846
Authors
Svitlana HrynkevychNational University, Lviv Polytechnic, Lviv, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3563-3989
Authors
Ruslan LavrovPHEI European University, Kyiv, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9655-4467
Authors
Serhii KozlovskyiVasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0707-4996
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