Modelling Regional Sustainable Development in Ukrainian Crisis and War

Olena Shevchuk


National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4117-1474

Olha Ilyash


National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7882-3942

Glib Mazhara


National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1860-756X

Nadiia Roshchyna


National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2035-8846

Svitlana Hrynkevych


National University, Lviv Polytechnic, Lviv, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3563-3989

Ruslan Lavrov


PHEI European University, Kyiv, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9655-4467

Serhii Kozlovskyi


Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0707-4996

Abstract

The article investigates the impact of force majeure crisis factors that appeared in the Ukrainian economy as a result of the global recession, the events of 2014-2021: annexation of Crimea, temporary occupation of part of the industrial territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, military operations in Donbas, during the fight against pandemic (COVID-19) and war in 2022 on the stable development of regions. Based on the analysis of official indicators of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, it was proved that the said factors create additional multiplier and acceleration effects that adversely affect the dynamics of the gross regional product in the crisis conditions. It has been determined that the result of these effects is the transformation of crisis signals from a proactive to an active phase. The construction of a heat map of GRP correlation indicators made it possible to determine the existence of a disbalance between the economic and social development of the regions. Building a model of linear regression, allowed us to draw conclusions about the existing disbalance of GRP regions during the crisis and war.


Keywords:

crisis factors, gross regional product, sustainable, war, economic development, multiplier effect, acceleration effect, transformation of crisis signals, heat correlation map

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Published
2023-07-09

Cited by

Shevchuk, O., Ilyash, O., Mazhara, G., Roshchyna, N., Hrynkevych, S., Lavrov, R., & Kozlovskyi, S. (2023). Modelling Regional Sustainable Development in Ukrainian Crisis and War. Problemy Ekorozwoju, 18(1), 37–50. https://doi.org/10.35784/pe.2023.1.04

Authors

Olena Shevchuk 

National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4117-1474

Authors

Olha Ilyash 

National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7882-3942

Authors

Glib Mazhara 

National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1860-756X

Authors

Nadiia Roshchyna 

National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2035-8846

Authors

Svitlana Hrynkevych 

National University, Lviv Polytechnic, Lviv, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3563-3989

Authors

Ruslan Lavrov 

PHEI European University, Kyiv, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9655-4467

Authors

Serhii Kozlovskyi 

Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0707-4996

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