Electricity Network Capacity Needs for Industrial Decarbonization in China: Pathways to Net-Zero under Grid Constraints

China’s commitment to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 requires deep decarbonization of its industrial sector, responsible for over 60% of national energy-related CO₂ emissions. This paper assesses the electricity network capacity needed to support industrial electrification under three scenarios: Business-as-Usual, Balanced Decarbonization and Max Electrification. Using a spatially disaggregated, province-level modeling approach, we project industrial electricity demand through 2050 and compare it to grid headroom to identify infrastructure constraints. Results show that while eastern coastal provinces can accommodate demand growth through 2030, central and western regions face significant capacity shortfalls by 2040–2050. Without targeted investments in transmission and distribution networks, over 55% of large point-source industrial sites could face grid constraints – threatening national decarbonization goals. Policy recommendations include region-specific grid reinforcement, alignment of electrification with infrastructure planning, and integration of network constraints into national energy models. This study provides the first spatially explicit assessment of electricity grid limitations for industrial decarbonization in China, offering key insights for policymakers and planners navigating the net-zero transition. The findings also support progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals – specifically SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure), and SDG 13 (Climate Action) – while aligning with China’s ecological civilization strategy for green and inclusive industrial transformation.