JOINT EFFECT OF FORECASTING AND LOT-SIZING METHOD ON COST MINIMIZATION OBJECTIVE OF A MANUFACTURER: A CASE STUDY
Jack OLESEN
subrata.scm@gmai.comAalborg University, Department of Materials and Production, , DK 9220, Aalborg East (Denmark)
Carl-Emil Houmøller PEDERSEN
*Aalborg University, Department of Materials and Production, DK 9220, Aalborg East (Denmark)
Markus Germann KNUDSEN
Aalborg University, Department of Materials and Production, , DK 9220, Aalborg East (Denmark)
Sandra TOFT
Aalborg University, Department of Materials and Production, DK 9220, Aalborg East (Denmark)
Vladimir NEDBAILO
Aalborg University, Department of Materials and Production, DK 9220, Aalborg East (Denmark)
Johan PRISAK
Production Manager, Fibertex Personal Care Group, Aalborg (Denmark)
Izabela Ewa NIELSEN
Aalborg University, Department of Materials and Production, DK 9220, Aalborg East (Denmark)
Subrata SAHA
Aalborg University, Department of Materials and Production, DK 9220, Aalborg East (Denmark)
Abstract
Forecasting and lot-sizing problems are key for a variety of products manufactured in a plant of finite capacity. The plant manager needs to put special emphasis on the way of selecting the right forecasting methods with a higher level of accuracy and to conduct procurement planning based on specific lot-sizing methods and associated rolling horizon. The study is conducted using real case data form the Fibertex Personal Care, and has evaluated the joint influence of forecasting procedures such as ARIMA, exponential smoothing methods; and deterministic lot-sizing methods such as the Wagner-Whitin method, modified Silver-Meal heuristic to draw insights on the effect of the appropriate method selection on minimization of operational cost. The objective is to explore their joint effect on the cost minimization goal. It is found that a proficient selection process has a considerable impact on performance. The proposed method can help a manager to save substantial operational costs.
Keywords:
Forecasting, ARIMA, Inventory management, Lot-sizing, Economies-of-scale, Production planning, HeuristicReferences
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Authors
Jack OLESENsubrata.scm@gmai.com
Aalborg University, Department of Materials and Production, , DK 9220, Aalborg East Denmark
Authors
Carl-Emil Houmøller PEDERSEN*Aalborg University, Department of Materials and Production, DK 9220, Aalborg East Denmark
Authors
Markus Germann KNUDSENAalborg University, Department of Materials and Production, , DK 9220, Aalborg East Denmark
Authors
Sandra TOFTAalborg University, Department of Materials and Production, DK 9220, Aalborg East Denmark
Authors
Vladimir NEDBAILOAalborg University, Department of Materials and Production, DK 9220, Aalborg East Denmark
Authors
Johan PRISAKProduction Manager, Fibertex Personal Care Group, Aalborg Denmark
Authors
Izabela Ewa NIELSENAalborg University, Department of Materials and Production, DK 9220, Aalborg East Denmark
Authors
Subrata SAHAAalborg University, Department of Materials and Production, DK 9220, Aalborg East Denmark
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