Modelling Regional Sustainable Development in Ukrainian Crisis and War

Artykuł bada wpływ czynników kryzysowych o charakterze siły wyższej, które pojawiły się w ukraińskiej gospodarce w wyniku globalnej recesji, wydarzeń z lat 2014-2021: aneksja Krymu, tymczasowa okupacja części terenów przemysłowych obwodów donieckiego i ługańskiego, wojskowe operacje w Donbasie, walka z pandemią (COVID-19) i wojny w 2022 r. Na podstawie analizy oficjalnych wskaźników Państwowej Służby Statystyki Ukrainy wykazano, że czynniki te tworzą dodatkowy mnożnik efektów akceleracyjnych, które niekorzystnie wpływają na dynamikę produktu regionalnego brutto w warunkach kryzysowych. Stwierdzono, że skutkiem tych efektów jest przekształcenie sygnałów kryzysowych z fazy proaktywnej w aktywną. Konstrukcja wskaźników korelacji mapy cieplnej GRP pozwoliła na stwierdzenie istnienia dysproporcji między rozwojem gospodarczym i społecznym regionów. Zbudowanie modelu regresji liniowej pozwoliło na wyciągnięcie wniosków na temat istniejącej dysproporcji regionów GRP w okresie kryzysu i wojny.

Słowa kluczowe:

czynniki kryzysowe, produkt regionalny brutto, zrównoważony, wojna, ozwój gospodarczy, efekt mnożnikowy, efekt akceleracji, transformacja sygnałów kryzysowych, mapa korelacji ciepła

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Modelowanie zrównoważonego rozwoju regionalnego podczas kryzysu i wojny w Ukrainie. (2023). Problemy Ekorozwoju , 18(1), 37-50. https://doi.org/10.35784/pe.2023.1.04

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Numer Tom 18 Nr 1 (2023)

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