Czy ekonomiczny mechanizm kompromisu pomiędzy ilością i jakością jest zrównoważony?
Dariusz Pieńkowski
University of Life Sciences in Poznań, ul. Wojska Polskiego 28, 60-637 Poznań, Poland (Polska)
Abstrakt
Współczesna debata gospodarcza na temat starzenia się ludności wskazuje na niską płodność i zagrożenia ekonomiczne dla emerytów pomimo tego, że w latach 1950-2015 liczba ludności na świecie zwiększyła się ponad dwa i pół razy. Problemy społeczno-gospodarcze są w konflikcie z debatą ekologiczną i próbami stabilizacji wzrostu populacji na zrównoważoną skalę. W niniejszym artykule zbadano mechanizm kompromisu pomiędzy jakością i ilością dzieci przedstawiony w koncepcji G. Beckera z globalnej perspektywy ewolucyjnej postulowanej w koncepcji zrównoważonego rozwoju. Równowaga pomiędzy jakością a ilością prowadzi do niższej płodności typowej dla wielu krajów rozwiniętych. Tym niemniej, nie skutkuje to niższym deficytem ekologicznym w tych krajach, zgodnie z uwarunkowaniami postulowanymi w IPAT. W rezultacie nie istnieje skuteczny mechanizm ekonomiczny równoważący zamożność i zmiany wielkości populacji. Niniejsze badania wskazują na to, że obecne problemy demograficzne są zakorzenione w instytucjach społeczno-ekonomicznych i z perspektywy globalnej nie istnieje problem niższej płodności czy starzenia się populacji.
Słowa kluczowe:
IPAT, teoria ilości-jakości, zmiana demograficzna, stopa reprodukcji netto, ślad ekologicznyBibliografia
ANGEL J.L. & SETTERSTEN R.A., 2013, The New Realities of Aging: Social and Economic Contexts, in: New Directions in the Sociology of Aging, eds. Waite L.J. & Plewes T.J., National Academies Press, Washington D.C., p. 95-119.
Google Scholar
BAKSHI G.S. & CHEN Z., 1994, Baby Boom, Population Aging, and Capital Markets, in: The Journal of Business, 67(2), p. 165-202.
Google Scholar
BALDACCHINO G. & SAMMUT C., 2016, The Migration Crisis: No Human is Illegal, in: The Round Table, 105(2), p. 231-233.
Google Scholar
BARRO R.J., 1978, The impact of social security on private saving: evidence from the U.S. time series, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C.
Google Scholar
BEBCZUK R.N. & MUSALEM A.R., 2009, Does Investing in Emerging Markets Help? in: Aging Population, Pension Funds, and Financial Markets, ed. Holzmann, R., World Bank Publications, Washington D.C., p. 97-118.
Google Scholar
BECKER G.S., 1960, An Economic Analysis of Fertility, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., Washington D.C., p. 209-240.
Google Scholar
BECKER G.S., 2007, Health as human capital: synthesis and extensions, in: Oxford Economic Papers, 59(3), p. 379-410.
Google Scholar
BECKER G.S. & BARRO R.J., 1988, A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility, in: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 103(1), p. 1-25.
Google Scholar
BECKER G.S. & LEWIS G.H., 1974, Interaction between Quantity and Quality of Children, in: Economics of the family: marriage, children, and human capital, eds. Schultz T.W., University of Chicago Press, Chicago, p. 81-90.
Google Scholar
BECKER G.S., MURPHY K.M. & TAMURA R., 1990, Human capital, fertility, and economic growth, in: Journal of Political Economy, 98(S5), p. 12-37.
Google Scholar
BLOFIELD M., 2013, The Politics of Moral Sin: Abortion and Divorce in Spain, Chile and Argentina, Routledge, New York-London.
Google Scholar
BLOOM D.E., CANNING D. & FINK G., 2010, Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth, in: Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 26(4), p. 583-612.
Google Scholar
BODINI A. & KLOTZ S., 2009, Ecology – Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems, vol. II, EOLSS Publication/UNESCO, Oxford, UK.
Google Scholar
BONGAARTS J., 2004, Population Aging and the Rising Cost of Public Pensions, in: Population and Development Review, 30(1), p. 1-23.
Google Scholar
BOUVIER L.F., 2001, Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Aging Populations? in: Population and Environment, 22(4), p. 377-381.
Google Scholar
BUCKLEY M., 2011, John Stuart Mill and the Idea of a Stationary State Economy, in: Humanistic Ethics in the Age of Globality, eds. Dierksmeier C, Amann W., von Kimakowitz E., Spitzeck H. & Pirson M., Palgrave Macmillan, Hampshire UK, p. 137-147.
Google Scholar
BURGER O. & DELONG J.P., 2016, What if fertility decline is not permanent? The need for an evolutionarily informed approach to understanding low fertility, in: Philosophical Transitions of the Royal Society B, 371(1692), p. 2015-2157.
Google Scholar
CALDWELL J.C., 1976, Toward A Restatement of Demographic Transition Theory, in: Population and Development Review, 2(3/4), p. 321-366.
Google Scholar
CALDWELL J.C., 2006, Demographic transition theory, Springer, Dordrecht.
Google Scholar
COSTANZA R., 2000, The dynamics of the ecological footprint concept, in: Ecological economics, 32(3), p. 341-345.
Google Scholar
COX D. & STARK O., 2007, On the Demand for Grandchildren: Tied Transfer and the Demonstration Effect, in: Journal of Public Economics, 89(9-10), p. 1665-1697.
Google Scholar
DALY H.E., 1990, Toward some operational principles of sustainable development, in: Ecological Economics, 2(1), p. 1-6.
Google Scholar
DALY H.E. & FARLEY J., 2011, Ecological Economics: Principles and Applications, Island Press, Washington D.C.
Google Scholar
DARBY M.R., 1979, The Effects of Social Security on Income and the Capital Stock, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington D.C.
Google Scholar
DAVID H.P., FLEISCHHACKER J. & HOHN C., 1988, Abortion and Eugenics in Nazi Germany, in: Population and Development Review, 14(1), p. 81-112.
Google Scholar
DIETZ T. & ROSA E.A., 1994, Rethinking the environmental impacts of population, affluence and technology, in: Human Ecology Review, 1(12), p. 277-300.
Google Scholar
DOEPKE M., 2015, Gary Becker on the Quantity and Quality of Children, in: Journal of Demographic Economics, 81(1), p. 59-66.
Google Scholar
DOPFER K., 2016, Evolutionary Economics, in: Handbook on the History of Economic Analysis Volume III: Developments in Major Fields of Economics, eds. Faccarello G. & Kurz H. D., Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenhams UK, p. 175-193.
Google Scholar
EASTERLIN R.A., 1961, The American Baby Boom in Historical Perspective, in: American Economic Review, 51(5), p. 869-911.
Google Scholar
EASTERLIN R.A., 1971, Does Human Fertility Adjust to the Environment? in: American Economic Review, 61(2), p. 399-407.
Google Scholar
EASTERLIN R.A., 1975, An economic framework for fertility analysis, in: Studies in family planning, 6(3), p. 54–63.
Google Scholar
EASTERLIN R.A., MACDONALD C. & MACUNOVICH D.J., 1990, How Have American Baby Boomers Fared? Earnings and Economic Well-Being of Young Adults, 1964–1987, in: Journal of Population Economics, 3(4), p. 277-290.
Google Scholar
ESPENSHADE T.J., 2001, ‘Replacement Migration’ from the Perspective of Equilibrium Stationary Populations, in: Population and Environment, 22(4), p. 383-389.
Google Scholar
ESPENSHADE T.J., BOUVIER L.F. & ARTHUR W.B., 1982, Immigration and the stable population model, in: Demography, 19(1), p. 125-133.
Google Scholar
ESPENSHADE T.J., GUZMAN J.C. & WESTOFF C.F., 2003, The Surprising Global Variation in Replacement Fertility, in: Population Research and Policy Review, 22(5-6), p. 575-583.
Google Scholar
ESPOSITO L., 1978, Effect of Social Security on Saving: Review of Studies Using U.S. Time-Series Data, in: Social Security Bulletin, 41(5), p. 9-17.
Google Scholar
EUROPEAN COMMISSION 2014, The 2015 Ageing Report: Underlying Assumptions and Projection Methodologies, EC, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Luxembourg, no. 8.
Google Scholar
EUROSTAT, 2016a, Glossary, EUROSTAT: Statistics Explained, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Glossary:Young-age-dependency-ratio (28.11.2016).
Google Scholar
EUROSTAT 2016b, Energy Production and Imports, EUROSTAT: Statistics Explained, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Energy_production_and _imports (10.05.2017).
Google Scholar
FELDSTEIN M., 1974, Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation, in: Journal of Political Economy, 82(5), p. 905-926.
Google Scholar
FENG W., GU B. & CAI Y., 2016, The End of China’s One-Child Policy, in: Studies in Family Planning, 47(1), p. 83-86.
Google Scholar
FU B., ZHUANG X., JIANG G., SHI J. & LU Y., 2007, Environmental Problems and Challenges in China, in: Environmental Science & Technology, 41(22), p. 7597-7602.
Google Scholar
GERLAND P., RAFTERY A.E., ŠEVČÍKOVÁ H., NAN LI, GU D., SPOORENBERG T., ALKEMA L., FOSDICK B.K., CHUNN J., LALIC N., BAY G., BUETTNER T., HEILIG G.K. & WILMOTH J., 2014, World Population Stabilization Unlikely this Century, in: Science, 346(6206), p. 234-237.
Google Scholar
GIVENS T.E., 2013, Immigration and National Security: Comparing the US and Europe, in: Whitehead Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations, 11(1), p. 79.
Google Scholar
GLOBAL FOOTPRINT NETWORK, 2017a, Ecological Footprint, http://www.footprintnetwork.org/our-work/ecological-footprint/ (7 May 2017).
Google Scholar
GLOBAL FOOTPRINT NETWORK, 2017b, Ecological Footprint Explorer, http://data.footprintnetwork.org/ (7 May 2017).
Google Scholar
GOLDSTEIN J., LUTZ W. & TESTA M.R., 2003, The emergence of Sub-Replacement Family Size Ideals in Europe, in: Population Research and Policy Review, 22(5-6), p. 479-496.
Google Scholar
HALL P. & SOSKICE D., 2001, Varieties of Capitalism: The Institutional Foundations of Comparative Advantage, Oxford University Press, Oxford UK, New York.
Google Scholar
HAMILTON W.D., 1964, The Genetical Evolution of Social Behaviour, in: Journal of Theoretical Biology, 7(1), p. 1-16.
Google Scholar
HAMILTON W.D., 1972, Altruism and Related Phenomena, Mainly in Social Insects, in: Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 3(1), p. 193-232.
Google Scholar
HEMMING R., 1999, Should Public Pensions Be Funded? in: International Social Security Review, 52(2), p. 3.
Google Scholar
HOLZMANN R., HINZ R.P. & GERSDORFF H. von, 2005, Old-Age Income Support in the 21st Century: An International Perspective on Pension Systems and Reform, World Bank, Washington D.C.
Google Scholar
HOPKINS C.D., ROSTER C.A. & WOOD, 2006, Making the transition to retirement: appraisals, post‐transition lifestyle, and changes in consumption patterns, in: Journal of Consumer Marketing, 23(2), p. 87-99.
Google Scholar
HOWE N. & STRAUSS W., 1992, Generations: The History of America’s Future, 1584 to 2069, Reprint edition, Quill, New York.
Google Scholar
HUNG J.-Y. & LU K.-S., 2014, Research on the Healthy Lifestyle Model, Active Ageing, and Loneliness of Senior Learners, in: Educational Gerontology, 40(5), p. 353-362.
Google Scholar
JACKSON R., 2002, The Global Retirement Crisis, in: The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, 27(4), p. 486-511.
Google Scholar
KALECKI M., 1951, Theory of Economic Dynamics: An Essay on Cyclical and Long Run Changes in Capitalist Economy, Allen and Unwin, London.
Google Scholar
KANG J.M., 2013, Retirement of Baby Boomers and Its Impact on the Financial Market, in: Korean Economic and Financial Review, 18(3), p. 57-61.
Google Scholar
KESEL J. & SEDLAK V., 2014, Global Climate Change and Security Threats, in: European Scientific Journal, 10(20), p. 31-51.
Google Scholar
KEYNES J.M., 1964, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, Brace & World, Harcourt.
Google Scholar
KIRKWOOD T.B.L., 1997, Is There a Biological Limit to the Human Life Span? in: Longevity: To the Limits and Beyond, eds. Robine J.-M., Vaupel J.W., Jeune B. & Allard M., Springer, Berlin-Heidelberg, p. 69-76.
Google Scholar
KUNÉ J.B., 2001, The Controversy of Funding Versus Pay-As-You-Go: What Remains of the Debate? in: The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance. Issues and Practice, 26(3), p. 418-434.
Google Scholar
LEE R.D. & MASON A. eds. 2011a, Population Aging and the Generational Economy: A Global Perspective, Edward Elgar & International Development Research Centre, Cheltenhams UK – Northampton US.
Google Scholar
LEE R.D., and MASON A., 2011b, Lifecycles, support systems, and generational flows: patterns and change, in: Population Aging and the Generational Economy: A Global Perspective, eds. Lee R.D. & Mason A., Edward Elgar & International Development Research Centre, Cheltenhams UK – Northampton US, p. 79-106.
Google Scholar
LESNOY S.D. & LEIMER D.R., 1985, Social Security and Private Saving: Theory and Historical Evidence, in: Social Security Bulletin, 48(1), p. 14-30.
Google Scholar
LUCI-GREULICH A. & THÉVENON O., 2013, The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries, in: European Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie, 29(4), p. 387-416.
Google Scholar
LUTZ W., SANDERSON W. & SCHERBOV S., 2001, The End of World Population Growth, in: Nature, 412(6846), p. 543-554.
Google Scholar
MALTHUS T.R., 1798, An Essay on the Principle of Population As It Affects the Future Improvement of Society, with Remarks on the Speculations of Mr. Goodwin, M. Condorcet and Other Writers, J. Johnson in St Paul’s Church, London.
Google Scholar
MANKIW N.G. & WEIL D.N., 1989, The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust, and the Housing Market, in: Regional Science and Urban Economics, 19(2), p. 235-258.
Google Scholar
MASON A. & LEE R.D., 2011, Population Aging and the Generational Economy: Key Findings, in: Population Aging and the Generational Economy: A Global Perspective, eds. Lee R.D. & Mason A., Edward Elgar & International Development Research Centre, Cheltenhams UK – Northampton US, p. 3-31.
Google Scholar
McCONNELL M., 2013, Behavioral economics and aging, in: The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 1-2, p. 83-89.
Google Scholar
McDANIEL, S.A. & ZIMMER, Z., 2016. Global Ageing in the Twenty-First Century: Challenges, Opportunities and Implications, Routledge, New York.
Google Scholar
McMORROW K. & ROEGER W., 2004, The economic and financial market consequences of global ageing, Springer, Berlin-New York.
Google Scholar
MERELLA V., 2006, Engel’s Curve and Product Differentiation: A Dynamic Analysis of the Effects of Quality on Consumer’s Choice, in: Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Economiche e Commerciali, 53(2), p. 157-182.
Google Scholar
MILL J.S., 1871, Principles of Political Economy, Longmans, Green, Reader and Dyer, London.
Google Scholar
MUNNELL A.H., 1974, The Impact of Social Security on Personal Savings, in: National Tax Journal, 27(4), p. 553-567.
Google Scholar
NAGY S.R., 2015, Japan’s Demographic Revival: Rethinking Migration, Identity and Sociocultural Norms, World Scientific, Singapore.
Google Scholar
NORGAARD R.B., 1994, Development Betrayed: The End of Progress and a Coevolutionary Revisioning of the Future, Routledge, New York.
Google Scholar
NOZICK R., 2013, Anarchy, State, and Utopia, Basic Books, New York.
Google Scholar
PAGE B., 1998, Social Security and Private Saving: A Review of the Empirical Evidence, Congressional Budget Office, Washington D.C.
Google Scholar
PFAU W.D., 2005, The Effects of Social Security on Private Savings: A Reappraisal of the Time Series Evidence, in: Sophia International Review, 27(1), p. 57-70.
Google Scholar
PIEŃKOWSKI D., 2009, Selfishness, Cooperation, the Evolutionary Point of View and its Implications for Economics, Ecological Economics, 69(2), p. 335-344.
Google Scholar
PIEŃKOWSKI D., 2012, Paradoks Jevons’a a Konsumpcja Energii w Unii Europejskiej, in: Problemy Ekorozwoju/ Problems of Sustainable Development, 7(1), p. 105-116.
Google Scholar
RICARDO D., 1888, Essay on the Funding System, in: The Works of David Ricardo, John Murray, London, p. 513-548.
Google Scholar
SCHWARTZ A.M., 2006, Pension System Reforms, in: SP Discussion Paper, no. 0608, Washington, D.C.
Google Scholar
SCHWARZ A.M., ARIAS O.S., ZVINIENE A., RUDOLPH H.P., ECKARDT S., KOETTL J., IMMERVOLL H. & ABELS M., 2014, The Inverting Pyramid: Pension Systems Facing Demographic Challenges in Europe and Central Asia, World Bank Publications, Washington, D.C.
Google Scholar
SEVELIUS G.G., 2013, The Nine Pillars of History: A Guide for Peace, Author House, Bloomington.
Google Scholar
SIKKEN B., DAVIS N., HAYASHI C. & OLKKONEN H., 2008, The Future of Pensions and Healthcare in a Rapidly Ageing World: Scenarios to 2030, World Economic Forum, Cologny-Geneva.
Google Scholar
SOLOW R.M., 1999, Neoclassical Growth Theory, in: Handbook of Macroeconomics, Handbooks in Economics, eds. Taylor, J.B. & Woodford, M., Elsevier, Amsterdam, p. 637-667.
Google Scholar
THE WORLD BANK, 1994, Averting the Old Age Crisis: Policies to Protect the Old and Promote Growth, The World Bank, Washington, D.C., no. 13584.
Google Scholar
THE WORLD BANK, 2017, The World Bank International Comparison Program database, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD (16.01.2017).
Google Scholar
TSUI A.O., 2001, Population Policies, Family Planning Programs, and Fertility: The Record, in: Population and Development Review, 27(Supplement), p. 184-204.
Google Scholar
UNITED NATIONS, 2000, Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations? Population Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs United Nations Secretariat, New York, no. ESA/P/WP.160.
Google Scholar
UNITED NATIONS, 2015, World Population Prospects 2015 – Population Division, Monitoring – Global Population Trends, https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Other/ Documentation (24.10.2016).
Google Scholar
VOS A.E., 2009, Falling fertility rates: New challenges to the European welfare state, in: Socio-Economic Review, 7(3), p. 485-503.
Google Scholar
WACKERNAGEL M., ONISTO L., BELLO P., LINARES A.C., FALFÁN I.S.L., GARCÍA J.M., GUERRERO A.I.S. & GUERRERO M.G.S., 1999, National Natural Capital Accounting with the Ecological Footprint Concept, in: Ecological Economics, 29(3), p. 375-390.
Google Scholar
WAN H.Y., 1971, Economic Growth, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, New York-Chicago-San Francisco-Atlanta.
Google Scholar
WILLMORE L., 1998, Social Security and the Provision of Retirement Income, Pensions Institute Discussion Paper, no. PI-9805, The Pension Institute, London.
Google Scholar
WCED (WORLD COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT), 1987, Our Common Future, Oxford University Press, Oxford-New York.
Google Scholar
WWF, 2014, Living Planet Report 2014, World Wild Fund, Switzerland.
Google Scholar
WWF INTERNATIONAL, 2016, Living Planet Report 2016. Risk and Resilience in a New Era, WWF International, Gland, Switzerland.
Google Scholar
Autorzy
Dariusz PieńkowskiUniversity of Life Sciences in Poznań, ul. Wojska Polskiego 28, 60-637 Poznań, Poland Polska
Statystyki
Abstract views: 21PDF downloads: 8
Licencja
Utwór dostępny jest na licencji Creative Commons Uznanie autorstwa – Na tych samych warunkach 4.0 Miedzynarodowe.