The Influence of the World Grain Market on Prevalence of Mankind’s Undernourishment in the Times of War on the Ukraine

Serhii Kozlovskyi

s.kozlovskyy@donnu.edu.ua
Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0707-4996

Allam Yousuf


Erasmus University College, Rotterdam, The Netherlands (Netherlands)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0262-1890

Vira Butenko


National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8814-9392

Tetiana Kulinich


Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0110-7080

Olena Bohdaniuk


National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine (United Arab Emirates)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8354-9933

Liudmyla Nikolenko


Donetsk State University of Internal Affairs, Kropyvnytskyi, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3437-6968

Ruslan Lavrov


T.H. Shevchenko National University «Chernihiv Colehium», Chernihiv, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9655-4467

Abstract

The world cereal production and supply as well as their trade, stock and losses are important indicators of the world market of cereals. They play a huge role in ensuring food security. The aim of this research is to identify the relation of the indicators of the world grain crops market (production, supply, losses, trade, stocks) and the level of malnutrition Prevalence of Undernourishment (PoU) among the world's population. Based on data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), a correlation-regression analysis was conducted between indicators of the global grain crops market, in particular: the wheat market, the fodder market of grain crops, the rice market and PoU of the world population for the period 2013/14 – 2020/2021 marketing years. It has been proven that there is a close, statistically reliable relationship between the above mentioned indicators, except for grain stocks and POU. The analysis of the world cereal market showed that among the indicators characterizing its conditions, the indicator trade in grain crops (r = 0.851; D = 0.724; F = 3.968, (F > F t ); z = 1.26; rL = 0.37; rU = 0.97) has the highest level of correlation.  It was found that with an increase in the volume of world cereal trade by 1 million tons, the PoU level will increase by 0.018%. A review of literary sources proves that the problem of ensuring food security, in particular with regard to reducing the level of starvation and malnutrition, cannot be solved only by fighting climate change, overcoming socio-economic and military problems, fighting pandemics, etc. Its solution to a large extent depends on fair, uniform export and import of food products, as evidenced by the calculations. A separate direction for solving the problem of the spread of malnutrition is the elimination of the policy of highly developed countries regarding the application of individual sanctions against countries with high PoU values, in particular, the Central African Republic, Madagascar, Haiti, Afghanistan, Chad, Congo, Lesotho, Liberia, Mozambique, etc.


Keywords:

food security, production, supply, trade, losses, stocks, wheat, fodder cereals, rice, malnutrition, hunger, regres-sion analysis, world grain market, war

ABAY K., ABDELFATTAH L., BREISINGER C., GLAUBER J., LABORDE D., 2022, The Russia-Ukraine Crisis Poses a Serious Food Security Threat for Egypt, IFPRI Blog: Issue Post, https://www.ifpri.org/blog/russia-ukraine-crisis-poses-serious-food-security-threat-egypt.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294394_24   Google Scholar

APK INFORM, 2022, Wheat Reality: Forced Export to the EU, https://www.apk-inform.com/en/exclusive/topic/ 1531226.
  Google Scholar

ARITA S., GRANT J., SYDOW S., BECKMAN J., 2022, Has global agricultural trade been resilient under coronavirus (COVID-19)? Findings from an econometric assessment of 2020, Food Policy, 107: 102204, https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm. nih.gov/34903907/.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102204   Google Scholar

BECHDOL B., GLAUBER J., DOZBA T., WELSH C., 2022, Agriculture and Food Security: Casualties of the War in Ukraine, https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/220317_Welsh_Food_Ukraine.pdf? vXxJ NXSAEmiyeqBh.hBYer4LRlp_WMl.
  Google Scholar

BENTLEY A.R., DONOVAN J., SONDER K., BAUDRON F., LEWIS J.M., VOSS R., RUTSAERT P., POOLE N., KAMOUN S., SAUNDERS D.G.O., HODSON D., HUGHER D.P., NEGRA C., IBBA M.I., SNAPP S., SIDA T.S., JALETA M., TESFAYE K., BECKER-RESHEF I., GOVAERTS B., 2022, Near- to long-term measures to stabilize global wheat supplies and food security, Nature Food, 3(7): 483-486. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00559-y.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00559-y   Google Scholar

CHIKAVA E. 2022, The World Food System Is under Threat. It Doesn’t Have to Be that Way Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, https://www.gatesfoundation.org/ideas/articles/war-in-ukraine-and-global-food-crisis.
  Google Scholar

CHATTERJEE S., SIMONOFF S., 2013, Handbook of Regression Analysis Copyright, https://ocd.lcwu.edu.pk/cfiles/ Statistics/Stat-503/HandbookofRegressionAnalysisbySampritChatterjeeJeffreyS.Simonoffauth.z-lib.org.pdf.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118532843   Google Scholar

CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, 2022, Beyond Black Sea Grains: The Global Mal-nutrion Crisis Caused by Russia’s War in Ukraine, https://www.csis.org/analysis/beyond-black-sea-grains-global-malnutrition-crisis-caused-russias-war-ukraine.
  Google Scholar

D’ODORICO P., CARR J.A., LAIO F., RIDOLFI L., & VANDONI S., 2014, Feeding humanity through global food trade, Earth’s Future, 2: 458-469. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000250.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000250   Google Scholar

DURO J.A., SCHAFFARTZIK A., & KRAUSMANN F., 2018, Metabolic inequality and its impact on efficient contrac-tion and convergence of international material resource use, Ecological Economics, 145: 430-440. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.11.029.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.11.029   Google Scholar

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS, 2023, Sustainable Development Goals, Indicator 2.1.1 – Prevalence of undernourishment, https://www.fao.org/sustainable-development-goals/indicators/211/en/.
  Google Scholar

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS, 2023, World Food Situation. FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/.
  Google Scholar

GERASYMENKO, Y., KOZLOVSKYI, S., KOZLOVSKYI, V., 2010, Conceptual grounds for construction of support system for investment decision-making within agroindustrial complex of Ukraine, Actual Problems of Economics, 5(107): 263-275.
  Google Scholar

GLOBAL POLICY FORUM, 2013, African Groups Reject G8 Corporate Food Plans as ‘Colonialism’, https://archive.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/217-hunger/52418-african-civil-society-groups-reject-new-alliance-plan.html.
  Google Scholar

GLOBAL POLICY FORUM, 2013, Alternatives to Food Import Dependency, https://archive.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/217-hunger/52460-alternatives-to-food-import-dependency.html.
  Google Scholar

KHAN S.A.R., RAZZAQ A., YU Z., SHAH A., SHARIF A., & JANJUA L., 2022, Disruption in Food Supply Chain and Undernourishment Challenges: An Empirical Study in the Context of Asian Countries, Socio-Economic. Planning. Sciences, 82: 101033, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0038012121000252.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2021.101033   Google Scholar

ILYASH, O., HRYNKEVYCH, S., ILLICH, L., KOZLOVSKYI, S.& BUHAYCHUK, N., 2020, Economic assessment of the relationship between housing and communal infrastructure development factors and population quality of life in Ukraine, Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 16(3): 93-108.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.14254/1800-5845/2020.16-3.8   Google Scholar

KARYY, O., KISIOŁEK, A., DZYUBINA, A., & KUCHER, A., 2022, Social Capital, Rules and Their Influence on Agreement Implementation, TEM Journal, 11(4): 1887-1896.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.18421/TEM114-57   Google Scholar

KOZLOVSKYI S. V., 2010, Economic policy as a basic element for the mechanism of managing development factors in contemporary economic system, Actual Problems of Economics, 1(103): 13-20.
  Google Scholar

KOZLOVSKYI S., GRYNYUK R., BALTREMUS O., IVASHCHENKO A., 2017, The methods of state regulation of sustainable development of agrarian sector in Ukraine, Problems and Perspectives in Management, 15(2-2): 332-343, https://www.businessperspectives.org/images/pdf/applications/publishing/templates/article/assets/9073/PPM_2017_02 cont2_Kozlovskyi.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21511/ppm.15(2-2).2017.03   Google Scholar

KOZLOVSKYI S., BAIDALA V., TKACHUK O., KOZYRSKA T., 2018, Management of the sustainable development of the agrarian sector of the regions of Ukraine, Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 14(4): 175-190, http://mnje.com/sites/mnje.com/files/175-_190_-kozlovskyi_et_al.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.14254/1800-5845/2018.14-4.12   Google Scholar

KUMAR D., KALITA P., 2017, Reducing Postharvest Losses during Storage of Grain Crops to Strengthen Food Securi-ty in Developing Countries, Foods, 6(1): 8, https://doi.org/10.3390/foods6010008.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/foods6010008   Google Scholar

LABA S., CACAK-PIETRZAK G., LABA R., SZCZEPANSKI K., 2022, Food Losses in Consumer Cereal Production in Poland in the Context of Food Security and Environmental Impact, Agriculture, 12(5): 655, https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12050665.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12050665   Google Scholar

LAVROV R., REMNOVA L., SADCHYKOVA I., MAZUR H., TYMOSHENKO M., KOZLOVSKYI V., KO-ZLOVSKYI S., 2022, Investments in the sustainable development of the potato sector in Ukraine based on the optimal balance of production and consumption, WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics, 19: 186-196, https://wseas.com/journals/articles.php?id=758.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.37394/23207.2022.19.19   Google Scholar

MATVIYCHUK, A. & VELYKOIVANENKO, H., 2014, Modeling of tax incentives effectiveness, Economic Annals-XXI, 5-6: 105-108.
  Google Scholar

MONTOLALU M.H., EKANANDA M., DARTANTO T., WIDYAWATI D., PANENNUNGI M., 2022, The Analy-sis of Trade Liberalization and Nutrition Intake for Improving Food Security across Districts in Indonesia, Sustainability, 14, 3291, https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/6/3291.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su14063291   Google Scholar

MOTTALEB K., GOVINDAN V., 2023, How the ongoing armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine can affect the global wheat food security? Front. Food. Sci. Technol, 3, https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frfst.2023. 1072872/full.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/frfst.2023.1072872   Google Scholar

MOTTALED K., KRUSEMAN G., & SNAPP S., 2022, Potential impacts of Ukraine-Russia armed conflict on global wheat food security: A quantitative exploration, Global Food Security, 35,
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100659   Google Scholar

https://www.doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100659.
  Google Scholar

NASIR M.A., NUGROHO A.D., LAKNER Z., 2022, Impact of the Russian–Ukrainian Conflict on Global Food Crops, Foods, 11, 2979, https://www.doi.org/10.3390/foods11192979.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11192979   Google Scholar

NUGROHO A.D., 2021, Does Covid-19 Have Effects on the Indonesian Horticultural Subsector? Bulgarian Journal. Agricultural. Science, 27: 865-874, https://www.agrojournal.org/27/05-06.pdf.
  Google Scholar

ONYEAKA H., UKWURU M., ANUMUDU C., ANYOGU A., 2022, Food Fraud in Insecure Times: Challenges and Opportunities for Reducing Food Fraud in Africa, Trends Food Science & Technology, 125: 26-32, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0924224422001479.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tifs.2022.04.017   Google Scholar

POLIAKOV R., ZAYUKOV I., 2023, Assessment of the relationship between liquidity and unprofitability of companies in preventing their bankruptcy, Problems and Perspectives in Management, 21(1): 141-153, https://www.businessperspectives.org/index.php/journals/problePoU-and-perspectives-in-management/issue-420/assessment-of-the-relationship -between-liquidity-and-unprofitability-of-companies-in-preventing-their-bankruptcy.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21511/ppm.21(1).2023.13   Google Scholar

POLIAKOV R., ZAYUKOV I., 2022, Model for preventing bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises in force majeure cir-cumstances, Problems and Perspectives in Management, 20(4): 365-381,
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21511/ppm.20(4).2022.28   Google Scholar

https://www.doi.org/10.21511/ ppm.20(4).2022.28.
  Google Scholar

SAJID M., STONE S., KAUR P., 2021, Transforming traditional nutrition paradigms with synthetic biology driven microbial production platforms, Current Research in Biotechnology, 3: 260-268,
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crbiot.2021.07.002   Google Scholar

https://www.doi.org/10.1016/ j.crbiot.2021.07.002.
  Google Scholar

SCHAFFARTZIK A., DURO J.A., KRAUSMANN F., 2019, Global appropriation of resources causes high interna-tional material inequality – growth is not the solution, Ecological Economics, 163: 9-19,
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.05.008   Google Scholar

https://www.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.05.008.
  Google Scholar

TRADE AND FOOD PRODUCTION SYSTEM, 2021, https://archive.globalpolicy.org/social-and-economic-policy/world-hunger/hunger-and-the-globalized-system-of-trade-and-food-production-.html.
  Google Scholar

WOOD S.A., SMITH M.R., FANZO J., REMANS R., DEFRIES R.S., 2018, Trade and the equitability of global food nutrient distribution, Nature Sustainability, 1: 34-37, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-017-0008-6.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-017-0008-6   Google Scholar

ZHAI L., YUAN S., FENG Y., 2022, The economic effects of export restrictions imposed by major grain producers, Agricultural Economic, 68(1): 11-19, https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202201-0002_the-economic-effects-of-export-restrictions-imposed-by-major-grain-producers.php.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17221/329/2021-AGRICECON   Google Scholar

UNITED NATIONS, 2022, Lack of Grain Exports Driving Global Hunger to Famine Levels, as War in Ukraine Continues, Speakers Warn Security Council, https://press.un.org/en/2022/sc14894.doc.htm.
  Google Scholar

Download


Published
2024-01-08

Cited by

Kozlovskyi, S., Yousuf, A., Butenko, V., Kulinich, T., Bohdaniuk, O., Nikolenko, L., & Lavrov, R. (2024). The Influence of the World Grain Market on Prevalence of Mankind’s Undernourishment in the Times of War on the Ukraine. Problemy Ekorozwoju, 19(1), 31–42. https://doi.org/10.35784/preko.5748

Authors

Serhii Kozlovskyi 
s.kozlovskyy@donnu.edu.ua
Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0707-4996

Authors

Allam Yousuf 

Erasmus University College, Rotterdam, The Netherlands Netherlands
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0262-1890

Authors

Vira Butenko 

National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8814-9392

Authors

Tetiana Kulinich 

Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0110-7080

Authors

Olena Bohdaniuk 

National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine United Arab Emirates
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8354-9933

Authors

Liudmyla Nikolenko 

Donetsk State University of Internal Affairs, Kropyvnytskyi, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3437-6968

Authors

Ruslan Lavrov 

T.H. Shevchenko National University «Chernihiv Colehium», Chernihiv, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9655-4467

Statistics

Abstract views: 229
PDF downloads: 372