The Influence of the World Grain Market on Prevalence of Mankind’s Undernourishment in the Times of War on the Ukraine

Serhii Kozlovskyi

s.kozlovskyy@donnu.edu.ua
Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0707-4996

Allam Yousuf


Erasmus University College, Rotterdam, The Netherlands (Netherlands)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0262-1890

Vira Butenko


National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8814-9392

Tetiana Kulinich


Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0110-7080

Olena Bohdaniuk


National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine (United Arab Emirates)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8354-9933

Liudmyla Nikolenko


Donetsk State University of Internal Affairs, Kropyvnytskyi, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3437-6968

Ruslan Lavrov


T.H. Shevchenko National University «Chernihiv Colehium», Chernihiv, Ukraine (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9655-4467

Abstract

The world cereal production and supply as well as their trade, stock and losses are important indicators of the world market of cereals. They play a huge role in ensuring food security. The aim of this research is to identify the relation of the indicators of the world grain crops market (production, supply, losses, trade, stocks) and the level of malnutrition Prevalence of Undernourishment (PoU) among the world's population. Based on data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), a correlation-regression analysis was conducted between indicators of the global grain crops market, in particular: the wheat market, the fodder market of grain crops, the rice market and PoU of the world population for the period 2013/14 – 2020/2021 marketing years. It has been proven that there is a close, statistically reliable relationship between the above mentioned indicators, except for grain stocks and POU. The analysis of the world cereal market showed that among the indicators characterizing its conditions, the indicator trade in grain crops (r = 0.851; D = 0.724; F = 3.968, (F > F t ); z = 1.26; rL = 0.37; rU = 0.97) has the highest level of correlation.  It was found that with an increase in the volume of world cereal trade by 1 million tons, the PoU level will increase by 0.018%. A review of literary sources proves that the problem of ensuring food security, in particular with regard to reducing the level of starvation and malnutrition, cannot be solved only by fighting climate change, overcoming socio-economic and military problems, fighting pandemics, etc. Its solution to a large extent depends on fair, uniform export and import of food products, as evidenced by the calculations. A separate direction for solving the problem of the spread of malnutrition is the elimination of the policy of highly developed countries regarding the application of individual sanctions against countries with high PoU values, in particular, the Central African Republic, Madagascar, Haiti, Afghanistan, Chad, Congo, Lesotho, Liberia, Mozambique, etc.


Keywords:

food security, production, supply, trade, losses, stocks, wheat, fodder cereals, rice, malnutrition, hunger, regres-sion analysis, world grain market, war

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Published
2024-01-08

Cited by

Kozlovskyi, S., Yousuf, A., Butenko, V., Kulinich, T., Bohdaniuk, O., Nikolenko, L., & Lavrov, R. (2024). The Influence of the World Grain Market on Prevalence of Mankind’s Undernourishment in the Times of War on the Ukraine. Problemy Ekorozwoju, 19(1), 31–42. https://doi.org/10.35784/preko.5748

Authors

Serhii Kozlovskyi 
s.kozlovskyy@donnu.edu.ua
Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0707-4996

Authors

Allam Yousuf 

Erasmus University College, Rotterdam, The Netherlands Netherlands
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0262-1890

Authors

Vira Butenko 

National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8814-9392

Authors

Tetiana Kulinich 

Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0110-7080

Authors

Olena Bohdaniuk 

National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine United Arab Emirates
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8354-9933

Authors

Liudmyla Nikolenko 

Donetsk State University of Internal Affairs, Kropyvnytskyi, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3437-6968

Authors

Ruslan Lavrov 

T.H. Shevchenko National University «Chernihiv Colehium», Chernihiv, Ukraine Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9655-4467

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